在此前的新冠肺炎疫情對航運市場影響的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)報告中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，我(wo)們提到，相比于2003年(nian)(nian)(nian)SARS病毒擴散時期，目(mu)前中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)在(zai)(zai)(zai)全球(qiu)航(hang)運(yun)(yun)(yun)市(shi)場的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影響力更廣(guang)更深(shen)遠。在(zai)(zai)(zai)本篇推送中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，我(wo)們將對過(guo)去(qu)十年(nian)(nian)(nian)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)航(hang)運(yun)(yun)(yun)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)表現做一次(ci)回顧(gu)。作(zuo)為最早進(jin)入中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)市(shi)場的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)航(hang)運(yun)(yun)(yun)研究(jiu)機構，在(zai)(zai)(zai)過(guo)去(qu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)十年(nian)(nian)(nian)里，克拉克森研究(jiu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)辦(ban)公(gong)室與(yu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)航(hang)運(yun)(yun)(yun)企(qi)業一起成長與(yu)發展(zhan)，我(wo)們見證了中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)市(shi)場一個又一個里程碑(bei)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)達成：2000年(nian)(nian)(nian)代(dai)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)海上貿易的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)迅速擴張極大地推動了航(hang)運(yun)(yun)(yun)市(shi)場發展(zhan)，2010年(nian)(nian)(nian)代(dai)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)航(hang)運(yun)(yun)(yun)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)發展(zhan)更進(jin)一步：在(zai)(zai)(zai)這十年(nian)(nian)(nian)間，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)海運(yun)(yun)(yun)進(jin)口量翻了一番，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)船(chuan)廠(chang)保持領先地位，而中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)船(chuan)東所擁有的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)船(chuan)隊規模位列全球(qiu)第二(er)。

中國海運貿易：助推全球增長

2010年(nian)(nian)代(dai)(dai)是中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)經(jing)濟(ji)顯著(zhu)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)，增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)模式變化的(de)時(shi)期(qi)。2000年(nian)(nian)代(dai)(dai)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)GDP平均增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速約為(wei)(wei)10.3%。2010年(nian)(nian)代(dai)(dai)初，為(wei)(wei)了提振受金融危機影響的(de)經(jing)濟(ji)發展，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)政府實(shi)施四(si)萬億經(jing)濟(ji)刺激(ji)計劃，推(tui)動了固定資(zi)(zi)產投(tou)資(zi)(zi)擴張，這對(dui)2010年(nian)(nian)代(dai)(dai)早期(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)經(jing)濟(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)帶來了顯著(zhu)的(de)作用(yong)。自(zi)那時(shi)起，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)GDP增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速一直(zhi)保(bao)持(chi)堅(jian)挺（2010年(nian)(nian)代(dai)(dai)GDP年(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速約為(wei)(wei)7.7%），但隨著(zhu)經(jing)濟(ji)成熟，近年(nian)(nian)來中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)GDP增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速開始放緩（自(zi)2015年(nian)(nian)起，GDP平均增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速約為(wei)(wei)6.6%），2015年(nian)(nian)和2019年(nian)(nian)分(fen)別出現經(jing)濟(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)的(de)周期(qi)性低(di)點。

盡管如此，過去(qu)十年(nian)中(zhong)(zhong)，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)經濟、能(neng)源需求及制造(zao)業(ye)和工業(ye)能(neng)力(li)的(de)(de)持續增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長為(wei)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)貿(mao)易顯著擴張提供了(le)(le)動(dong)(dong)力(li)。雖然中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)海(hai)運(yun)(yun)進口(kou)(kou)量(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)年(nian)均增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速由2000年(nian)代(dai)的(de)(de)約(yue)20.0%放(fang)(fang)(fang)緩至(zhi)了(le)(le)2010年(nian)代(dai)的(de)(de)7.1%，但是(shi)整體進口(kou)(kou)量(liang)(liang)由2009年(nian)的(de)(de)13.7億(yi)噸翻倍至(zhi)2019年(nian)的(de)(de)26.3億(yi)噸，而這(zhe)主要(yao)是(shi)受到了(le)(le)鐵礦石、原油和煤炭進口(kou)(kou)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加的(de)(de)推動(dong)(dong)。這(zhe)段時間中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)貿(mao)易的(de)(de)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長為(wei)全球海(hai)運(yun)(yun)貿(mao)易的(de)(de)擴張貢獻(xian)了(le)(le)50%，同期(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)占全球海(hai)運(yun)(yun)進口(kou)(kou)量(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)比重(zhong)也從17%上(shang)升至(zhi)22%。同樣的(de)(de)，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)海(hai)運(yun)(yun)出(chu)口(kou)(kou)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速在2010年(nian)代(dai)也有所放(fang)(fang)(fang)緩，增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速由2000年(nian)代(dai)的(de)(de)9.7%放(fang)(fang)(fang)緩至(zhi)4.8%。但是(shi)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)海(hai)運(yun)(yun)出(chu)口(kou)(kou)總量(liang)(liang)由2008年(nian)的(de)(de)4.48億(yi)升至(zhi)2019年(nian)的(de)(de)5.86億(yi)，集裝箱(xiang)出(chu)口(kou)(kou)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加是(shi)推動(dong)(dong)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長的(de)(de)主要(yao)力(li)量(liang)(liang)。

中國船廠：市場領先

而(er)在造(zao)(zao)(zao)船(chuan)(chuan)板(ban)塊，2000年(nian)(nian)代末(mo)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)造(zao)(zao)(zao)船(chuan)(chuan)產能實現了有史以來最(zui)快速(su)最(zui)大(da)幅的(de)(de)(de)(de)增長。受(shou)此推動，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)船(chuan)(chuan)廠在全(quan)球(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)手持(chi)訂(ding)單(dan)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)所占的(de)(de)(de)(de)份(fen)額也遙遙領先(xian)，按修正總噸計達37%。雖然(ran)全(quan)球(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)金融(rong)危機(ji)的(de)(de)(de)(de)到來使(shi)得2010年(nian)(nian)初起中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)船(chuan)(chuan)廠的(de)(de)(de)(de)交船(chuan)(chuan)量減少了一半，但是2019年(nian)(nian)全(quan)球(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)造(zao)(zao)(zao)船(chuan)(chuan)產能中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)仍然(ran)占到最(zui)大(da)份(fen)額（約(yue)34%）。2010年(nian)(nian)代還見證(zheng)了中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)造(zao)(zao)(zao)船(chuan)(chuan)產能顯著(zhu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)整合(he)進程(cheng)。隨著(zhu)大(da)量小規模的(de)(de)(de)(de)民營(ying)船(chuan)(chuan)廠退出市場，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)活(huo)躍造(zao)(zao)(zao)船(chuan)(chuan)廠（手持(chi)訂(ding)單(dan)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)至少有一艘1,000總噸以上船(chuan)(chuan)舶）的(de)(de)(de)(de)數量從十年(nian)(nian)前的(de)(de)(de)(de)392個下降至120個。而(er)2019年(nian)(nian)年(nian)(nian)底，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)最(zui)大(da)的(de)(de)(de)(de)兩大(da)國(guo)有造(zao)(zao)(zao)船(chuan)(chuan)集團(tuan)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)船(chuan)(chuan)重工（CSIC）和中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)船(chuan)(chuan)工業（CSSC）正式(shi)合(he)并。

中國船隊規模：不斷擴張

2010年(nian)代，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)擁有的(de)船隊(dui)平(ping)均擴(kuo)張速度約為11.7%，相較(jiao)于(yu)2000年(nian)代（約為8.8%）有所提高，增速為同(tong)期(qi)主要船東(dong)國(guo)的(de)最(zui)快水平(ping)。在2010年(nian)代末，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)擁有的(de)總船隊(dui)規模僅次(ci)于(yu)希臘，躍(yue)居全球第(di)(di)二，此前(qian)在2009年(nian)排名為全球第(di)(di)四。2010年(nian)代后半階(jie)段，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)主要船東(dong)公(gong)司(si)之間的(de)整合(he)也(ye)較(jiao)為顯著(zhu)，例如中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)遠集團與中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)海(hai)集團合(he)并。此外(wai)，隨著(zhu)租(zu)賃公(gong)司(si)的(de)日益崛起，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)在全球船舶融資市場(chang)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的(de)地(di)位也(ye)在2010年(nian)代顯著(zhu)提升。

未來十年仍需關注

那(nei)么，未來十年中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)航(hang)運將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)會如何發展(zhan)呢？日趨成熟(shu)的(de)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)經濟，不斷持續的(de)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)能源(yuan)消費結構轉型，以及中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)在全球海運貿易中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)繼續保持的(de)重要地位都將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)成為影響(xiang)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)航(hang)運發展(zhan)的(de)重要因素，而《中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)信息月刊(kan)》也(ye)將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)持續密切關注這些因素的(de)發展(zhan)。