——國家統計局(ju)服務業調查中(zhong)心高級統計師趙慶河解讀2019年9月中(zhong)國采購經理指(zhi)數

　　2019年(nian)9月(yue)30日國(guo)家統計(ji)局(ju)服務業調(diao)查中心和(he)中國(guo)物(wu)流與采(cai)(cai)購聯合(he)會發布了(le)中國(guo)采(cai)(cai)購經理(li)指數。對此，國(guo)家統計(ji)局(ju)服務業調(diao)查中心高(gao)級統計(ji)師趙慶河進(jin)行了(le)解讀。

　　一、制造業采購經理指數有所回升

　　9月(yue)份，制(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)PMI為(wei)(wei)(wei)49.8%，比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)回(hui)(hui)升(sheng)(sheng)0.3個(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian)，雖(sui)然仍處于(yu)榮枯(ku)線以(yi)下，但整體(ti)景(jing)氣較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)有(you)所改善。本月(yue)制(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)PMI的主要特(te)點(dian)(dian)(dian)：一(yi)是生(sheng)產需求雙雙擴(kuo)(kuo)(kuo)張(zhang)。新(xin)訂單指(zhi)數(shu)為(wei)(wei)(wei)50.5%，環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)回(hui)(hui)升(sheng)(sheng)0.8個(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian)，5月(yue)份以(yi)來首次升(sheng)(sheng)至擴(kuo)(kuo)(kuo)張(zhang)區(qu)間(jian)。生(sheng)產活(huo)動有(you)所加(jia)快(kuai)，生(sheng)產指(zhi)數(shu)為(wei)(wei)(wei)52.3%，環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)0.4個(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian)，其中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)農副食品(pin)加(jia)工(gong)、紡織服(fu)裝服(fu)飾、專用(yong)(yong)設備、電氣機(ji)械(xie)器材(cai)等(deng)制(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)生(sheng)產指(zhi)數(shu)位于(yu)55.0%以(yi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)較(jiao)高(gao)(gao)景(jing)氣區(qu)間(jian)。二是外貿狀況有(you)所改善。新(xin)出(chu)口(kou)(kou)訂單指(zhi)數(shu)為(wei)(wei)(wei)48.2%，環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)回(hui)(hui)升(sheng)(sheng)1.0個(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian)。進口(kou)(kou)指(zhi)數(shu)為(wei)(wei)(wei)47.1%，環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)回(hui)(hui)升(sheng)(sheng)0.4個(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian)。三是高(gao)(gao)技術(shu)(shu)制(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)持續擴(kuo)(kuo)(kuo)張(zhang)。高(gao)(gao)技術(shu)(shu)制(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)PMI為(wei)(wei)(wei)51.3%，高(gao)(gao)于(yu)制(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)PMI1.5個(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian)，連續8個(ge)(ge)月(yue)位于(yu)51.0%以(yi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)景(jing)氣擴(kuo)(kuo)(kuo)張(zhang)區(qu)間(jian)，其中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，醫藥、電氣機(ji)械(xie)器材(cai)等(deng)制(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)擴(kuo)(kuo)(kuo)張(zhang)較(jiao)快(kuai)。從需求情況看，高(gao)(gao)技術(shu)(shu)制(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)新(xin)訂單指(zhi)數(shu)為(wei)(wei)(wei)53.3%，環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)0.9個(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian)，市(shi)場預期向好。四是大中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)小(xiao)型(xing)(xing)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)景(jing)氣不(bu)同程度回(hui)(hui)升(sheng)(sheng)。大型(xing)(xing)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)PMI為(wei)(wei)(wei)50.8%，高(gao)(gao)于(yu)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)0.4個(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian)，對制(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)景(jing)氣回(hui)(hui)升(sheng)(sheng)的拉(la)動作用(yong)(yong)突出(chu)。中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)、小(xiao)型(xing)(xing)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)PMI為(wei)(wei)(wei)48.6%和48.8%，分(fen)(fen)別(bie)回(hui)(hui)升(sheng)(sheng)0.4和0.2個(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian)。從生(sheng)產情況看，大、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)、小(xiao)型(xing)(xing)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)生(sheng)產指(zhi)數(shu)環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)均(jun)有(you)所上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)，本月(yue)全部位于(yu)擴(kuo)(kuo)(kuo)張(zhang)區(qu)間(jian)。五是企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)信心有(you)所增(zeng)強。隨著一(yi)系(xi)列扶持實體(ti)經濟發展(zhan)的政策措施相繼落地(di)，制(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)生(sheng)產經營(ying)活(huo)動預期指(zhi)數(shu)環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)1.1個(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian)，達到54.4%，為(wei)(wei)(wei)第三季度高(gao)(gao)點(dian)(dian)(dian)。

　　二、非制造業商務活動指數略有回落

　　9月份(fen)，非制(zhi)造業商務活(huo)動指數(shu)為53.7%，比(bi)上月微幅回落0.1個百(bai)分點，非制(zhi)造業總體(ti)延續平穩擴張態勢。

　　服務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)業(ye)景氣(qi)(qi)穩中有升。服務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)業(ye)商務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)活(huo)動(dong)指數(shu)為53.0%，環比(bi)上升0.5個百(bai)分點。受制造(zao)業(ye)景氣(qi)(qi)回升的帶動(dong)，生產性(xing)服務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)業(ye)和(he)物流業(ye)商務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)活(huo)動(dong)指數(shu)為55.5%和(he)54.0%，分別比(bi)上月(yue)上升2.6和(he)1.8個百(bai)分點。從(cong)行業(ye)大類看(kan)(kan)，航空運輸(shu)、郵政(zheng)快遞、互聯網軟(ruan)件、銀行、證券等行業(ye)商務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)活(huo)動(dong)指數(shu)位(wei)于58.0%以上較高景氣(qi)(qi)區間(jian)，業(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)總量快速增(zeng)長。從(cong)市(shi)場預期看(kan)(kan)，業(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)活(huo)動(dong)預期指數(shu)為59.3%，保(bao)持在較高景氣(qi)(qi)區間(jian)，服務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)業(ye)企(qi)業(ye)對市(shi)場發展持續(xu)看(kan)(kan)好。

　　建(jian)筑業(ye)(ye)(ye)景氣有(you)所回(hui)落。建(jian)筑業(ye)(ye)(ye)商(shang)務(wu)活動(dong)(dong)指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)為(wei)57.6%，比上(shang)月回(hui)落3.6個(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)點(dian)，仍位(wei)于較高景氣區(qu)間。從(cong)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)大類(lei)看，房屋建(jian)筑業(ye)(ye)(ye)商(shang)務(wu)活動(dong)(dong)指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)為(wei)55.2%，環比回(hui)落4.1個(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)點(dian)；土木工程建(jian)筑業(ye)(ye)(ye)商(shang)務(wu)活動(dong)(dong)指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)為(wei)60.9%，低于上(shang)月3.0個(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)點(dian)。從(cong)市場需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)看，新(xin)訂單指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)為(wei)55.1%，比上(shang)月上(shang)升(sheng)1.2個(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)點(dian)，顯示(shi)市場需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)增勢(shi)穩定，近期(qi)建(jian)筑業(ye)(ye)(ye)有(you)望繼續保持較快(kuai)擴張。

　　三、綜合PMI產出指數平穩擴張

　　9月(yue)份，綜合PMI產(chan)(chan)出指(zhi)數為53.1%，略高于上(shang)月(yue)0.1個百(bai)分(fen)(fen)點，顯示我(wo)國企業(ye)(ye)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)運營(ying)總體平穩。構成綜合PMI產(chan)(chan)出指(zhi)數的制造業(ye)(ye)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)指(zhi)數和(he)非制造業(ye)(ye)商務活動指(zhi)數分(fen)(fen)別為52.3%和(he)53.7%，環(huan)比一升一落(luo)。